Unemployment, Wage and Educations – especially among graduates

by Nils Groes, Anders Holm, Fane Groes, Tina Honoré Kongsø and Kristian Brink, November 2004

Summary

This report sketches future unemployment patterns for various qualification groups in Denmark. In particular, we look at current and future employment opportunities for holders of Master’s (and higher) degrees. We also examine wages and salaries – and in particular the earnings of these higher graduates, which vary widely, with doctors being at the top and humanities graduates at the bottom. Differences in supply and demand and institutional factors have led to great differences in job opportunities and salaries for this group. The question is, what can we do about it? And what do we want?

The history

On the supply side, the total size of the workforce remained fairly constant over the period from 1980 to 2001, but there were radical changes in its composition in terms of qualifications held – see Chapter 2. The number of unskilled workers fell by almost 40 per cent, while the number of skilled workers rose by a good 20 per cent – with broadly speaking the whole of the increase taking place between 1980 and 1990. In contrast, the number of employees with tertiary education grew uninterruptedly, almost doubling. However, this group, which makes up a quarter of the workforce, is still not as large as that of the skilled or the unskilled workers. The group whose share of the employment market increased most – by as much as 140 per cent – was that of higher graduates; however, in 2001 it still amounted to no more than 6 per cent of the workforce.

Chapter 3 describes employment trends in different industries over the period 1980–2002. There was decline in manufacturing and stagnation in construction, but growth in both private and public service industries. Industrial trends generally led to greater demand for a highly trained workforce. This was partly because the service industries, which depend heavily on qualified personnel, grew, while agriculture and manufacturing declined; and partly because, as a general rule, a shift took place within each industry whereby the branches which were more dependent on a qualified workforce progressed while others slipped back. Moreover, there was a steady growth in the numbers of highly qualified personnel employed in all industries.

These trends are illustrated in Chapter 4. There was steadily increasing employment of higher graduates in both the public and the private sectors. This applies to all groups of higher graduates except doctors, among whom the increased employment was primarily in the public sector. 

The public sector still employs more higher graduates than the private sector, but the difference narrowed between 1980 and 2001.

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